We show a methodology for the computation of the probability of deadline miss for a periodic real-time task scheduled by a resource reservation algorithm. We propose a modelling technique for the system that reduces the computation of such a probability to that of the steady state probability of an infinite state Discrete Time Markov Chain with a periodic structure. This structure is exploited to develop an efficient numeric solution where different accuracy/computation time trade-offs can be obtained by operating on the granularity of the model. More importantly we offer a closed form conservative bound for the probability of a deadline miss. Our experiments reveal that the bound remains reasonably close to the experimental probability in one real-time application of practical interest. When this bound is used for the optimisation of the overall Quality of Service for a set of tasks sharing the CPU, it produces a good sub-optimal solution in a small amount of time.
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